Friday, September 7, 2012

Picks of the Week


Welcome back to this year's "Picks of the Week" segment that will occur weekly at We Make It Rain. As a refresher, I like to keep track of what I would have earned had I actually bet on all of the games (since gambling is illegal). Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I will keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

New York Giants - 3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Yes I know, the game already happened, but I lost it.  Might as well own up to it.

Chicago Bears - 9 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

For once, it is the Bears with the offensive firepower, and the Colts with a rookie quarterback.  Nevertheless, it is the defenseive changes for the Colts going to a 3-4 that may make Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis less threatening than normal.  Bears win.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Rookie quarterback and rookie running back could spell disaster for the Browns, especially since Brandon Weedon looks like he is the least prepare of all the rookie QBs to start.  Speaking of rookies, Mychal Kendricks, the Eagles linebacker from Cal, could be the best player from this year's draft, including Luck and Griffin.

Detroit Lions -8 v. St. Louis Rams

Can Sam Bradford be Sam Bradford and can Steven Jackson be Steven Jackson?  Two big questions that are as yet unanswered.  Calvin Johnson is the best offensive player in the NFL and has vowed to gain 100 yards receiving each game.  The only thing that might stop him is the emergence of Titus Young at the other receiver position.

Houston Texans -11 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I hate to give up this many points this early in the season, but the Miami Dolphins could challenge for the worst team in football this year.  Here is hoping that Ryan Tannehill is, as one Dolphin stated, "even better than we hoped he could be".

Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Atlanta Falcons

Even when they are winning, the Falcons don't seem to be spectacular.  The Chiefs defense has been assembling a lot of talent the last few years.  At the very least they keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

If Adrian Peterson doesn't play, or isn't himself, this could be the worst offensive (or most offensive) performance of the week.  The Jaguars defense flew under the radar and were at times spectacular last season.

New Englad Patriots -5 at Tennesee Titans

I am not sure that anyone knows what we have in Tennessee this year, but Kendall Wright looks exciting.  Colin McCarthy is the best linebacker nobody knows about (yet).  With that being said, the Patriots generally outscore almost everybody, and will do so this week.

Buffalo Bills +3 at New  York Jets

Go Harvard!  Do the "Tebow, Tebow, Tebow" chants start this week?  Jets running game is awful, which also means that it will not set up the passing game very well.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Yes John Skelton was like 5-2 last year, and yes he had some connection with Larry Fitzgerald.  But, Marshawn Lynch finished strong (even though he might not play this week), and Russell Wilson just outright won a three-way QB battle in camp.  Seattle's defense can stop Arizona much better than Arizona can stop Seattle - with my apologies to Adrian Wilson.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

Yes, the 49ers have talent, but I think that last year was a bit of an overachievement.  The Packers are still reeling from not making the Super Bowl!

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cam Newton is better than Josh Freeman, and I am not sure what else the Buccaneers have to offer.

Denver Broncos - 1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Not sure what to make of Pittsburgh this year.  They may not be able to run, because of running back confusion and because of the injury to guard David DeCastro, and they have defensive question marks.  So, I'll give it to Peyton's experience.

Baltimore -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A.J. Green is fantastic, but I just cannot buy into the Bengals being as good as they were last year.

Oakland Raiders -1 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have questions at running back, receiver, defense.  Oakland, which has been much maligned, may have some talent on their team if Carson Palmer can limit his turnovers and utilize the talent properly.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -8 at Washington Redskins

The Saints received great news today with regard to the unsuspension of several players, including Jonathan Vilma.  Their high flying offense was going to force Griffin to try to outscore them anyway, which would inevitably lead to a rookie mistake or two, regardless of how talented Griffin is.  Saints win big!!!

Previous Week's Record: N/A
Big Bet Previous Week:  N/A
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Big Bet Year to Date:  N/A
Winnings (Losses) Last Week:  N/A
Winnings (Losses) To Date: N/A