Sunday, September 26, 2010

Picks of the Week

This is abbreviated for now because I am typing on my phone. I will turn it into a proper post later, but I need to get my picks on record first.

Ravens -10 1/2
Steelers -2 1/2
Titans +3
Saints -3
Patriots -14 1/2
Lions + 11 1/2
Chiefs +3
Texans -2 1/2
Eagles -2 1/2
Rams +4 1/2
Raiders +4 1/2
Colts -5 1/2
Chargers -4
Dolphins -1
Packers -3

Big Bet - Bengals -3

Last Week 8-8
Big Bet 0-1
Last Weeks Earnings: (245)
Year to Date: +145

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Picks of the Week



AFter a pretty good start, I think I learned some things about teams that could contribute to a continued winning streak. Let's at least hope so. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. All spreads are used from the same site each week, as of the time I do the picking. On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Cleveland Browns
There is no telling who is going to start, or finish, at QB for Cleveland. Kansas City looked good against the Chargers. I look for them to at least keep it close, if not win outright.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Long time followers of this blog know that I hate giving up double digits. Not this time.

Tennessee Titans -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
With Roethlisberger this game would be entirely different. I look for Vince Young to make several more key plays than Dennis Dixon will.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Just a hunch, because of the return of Michael Vick.

Chicago Bears +7 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys offense has struggled the entire preseason and first game. Julius Peppers cannot wait to see Alex Barron lined up across from him.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With or without Matt Moore, Carolina's running backs are just too tough for Tampa.

Atlanta Falcons -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This is not Arizona's year.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Miami always plays good teams really tough. Should be a close game.

St. Louis Rams +3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
Sam Bradford can definitely play in this league.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
We will find out if Seattle's first game was a fluke or not.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 at Washingotn Redskins
Houston is really, really good. Should be favored by 6 1/2.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at San Diego Chargers
I just really cannot figure out Jacksonville. I am taking a flyer on them this week.

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets
Both teams played like polar opposites last week. Not a good omen for the Jets this week.

Indianapolis Colts -5 v. New York Giants
Indianapolis lost to a really good time. Not sure the Giants are as good as they looked in Week 1.

New Orleans -5 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I don't think San Fran is as bas as they showed last week, but they are not as good as New Orleans.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals looked more like the Bungles of the past last week, while the Ravens now have an offense. That is really scary for the rest of the AFC.

Previous Week's Record: 9-6-1
Year to Date: 9-6-1
Big Bet Previous Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 1-0
Winnings (Losses): $390

Friday, September 17, 2010

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 1 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see, and again, since I was at a bar all day drinking and watching football, that was a lot!

Game of the Week

Indianapolis Colts 24 at Houston Texans 34. There were no really classic games in Game 1. Some teams made a statement that they are better than expected, some teams made the opposite statement (I am looking at you New York Jets). This game was the game of the week for what it represented, The Houston Texans' emergence as a power in the NFL, and Indianapolis' comeuppance. Now Indianapolis may not slide into complete mediocrity, but they are at a point where other good teams are no longer scared of them. Houston, without great games from Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, but behind a ridiculous effort by the offensive line leading to 231 rushing yards by Arian Foster, made a claim that they are the team to beat in the AFC South.

Best Team Performance

The New England Patiots. They completely dismantled the defending AFC North champions the Cincinnati Bengals, who became preseason darlings after the arrival of Terrell Owens. New England asserted control early, and eased into a 38-24 victory, letting the Jets know that despite Rex Ryan's assertions, the Jets are not the team to beat in the AFC East.

Least Impressive Team Performance

New York Jets - Horrific offensively against the Ravens, and they looked like they were completely lost on offense. The defense only gave up 10 points to a supposedly vaunted Ravens offense, but when needed, and especially on third down, Baltimore was able to have its way with the Jets.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Arian Foster, RB - Houston. 231 yards on 33 carries, including 4 consecutive carries during which he gained 98 yards. In all honesty, I don't know what was more impressive, Foster's running or the blocking provided by the offensive line.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
LaRon Landry, S - Washington Redskins. 17 tackles, including 13 solo tackles, against the hated rival Dallas Cowboys in a 13-7 victory. Honorable mention to Clay Matthews, who had 3sacks for Green Bay against the Eagles.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Dexter McCluster KR, Kansas City Chiefs. A 94 yard return for a TD in his NFL debut. In a game in which he was not supposed to play because of an illness. So much for being too small for the league.

Goat of the Week

Calvin Johnson, WR - Detroit Lions. Yes, in reality he caught the ball. We all saw it. But anyone who has watched the NFL for any length of time knows that if you go to the ground during a catch, you have to maintain possession the entire time. Apparently Johnson was too busy with his engineering studies to watch the NFL growing up.

Hit of the Week

Julius Peppers - DE, Chicago Bears. Not a classically great hit in terms of viewing pleasure, but Peppers separated Matthew Stafford's shoulder with his hit, knocking the QB out for several weeks, maybe months. You don't get much harder than that. Peppers must be chomping at the bit to go against the Cowboys' Alex Barron.

Breakthrough Performance

Sam Bradford - QB - St. Louis Rams. No the Rams didn't win, and no Bradford did not play like a star. But, he looked like he belonged in the NFL as a QB, and he had 55 pass attempts. Generally most rookie QBs don't throw that much in 4 or 5 games.

Finally

Michael Vick, QB - Philadelphia Eagles

After serving time in the federal pen, and after not playing much at all last year, Vick looked good in throwing the ball for 175 yards, and he looked like himself in rushing for 103 yards. He gets the start this week.

Impact Injury

So many to choose from this week, but I will have to go with Matthew Stafford. The Lions look like they could be emerging this season to respectability, and now they lose Stafford for an indeterminate number of weeks.

Team Rising

Kansas City Chiefs - They looked good in defeating the perennial AFC West favorites San Diego Chargers. More importantly, they looked fun, not boring, with Charles and McCluster breaking off big plays.

Team Falling

Toss Up between the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, but I am going to pick the Cowboys, because they lost to the Redskins. The Jets at least lost to the Baltimore Ravens, a team some consider a Super Bowl favorite.

Best Teams

1. New Orleans Saints
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans
5. New York Giants

Worst Teams

32. San Francisco 49ers
31. Cleveland Browns
30. Oakland Raiders
29. Carolina Panthers
28. Cincinnati Bengals

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys - Is it possible that Dallas is as bad as it has shown in the preseason games and week 1? The Bears looked really good at times against the Lions, but the Cowboys aren't the Lions.

3. New England Patriots at New York Jets - After last weeks debacle, the Jets really need to assert some control over the other playoff favorites. New England looks to continue its dominance from last week.

2. Miami Dolphins v. Minnesota Vikings - Can Miami be that good without any real stars? Can Minnesota start 0-2? Both important questions that can be answered early in the season.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans - Two tough grind it out teams fight for early season supremacy. Steelers D v. Chris Johnson. Dennis Dixon with a game under his belt. Who knows what could happen?

Trivia
Houston Texans RB Arian Foster surprisingly rushed for 231 yards last week. This should not have been that much of a surprise as he is the second leading rusher in Tennessee Volunteer history. Who is the first? Answer provided next week.

Sports Bar Review of the Week
This is a new segment this year. Me and my peeps are going to attempt to watch the NFL games every Sunday from a different sports bar. My review of the bar will be in this section of the NFL Wrap-Up. This week's bar - JJ Muggs Stadium Grill in the Abacoa section of Jupiter, Florida.

JJ Muggs is in a great location, right across from the Spring Training stadium of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Florida Marlins. At first, it looks like a great sports bar, with lots of televisions in all good angles for watching. However, we were asked to move from our table because it was "reserved", and those that reserved it had arrived. We later find out that the reserving party was a bunch of employees, including the girlfriend of one of the managers. We were escorted upstairs, which is a nice area for a private party, but not so great for NFL Sunday. The televisions are located only along one wall, running perpendicular to the tables. Not good angles for watching the actual games.

Our bartender/waitress, Katie, was very attentive and generally really good. Although she seemed incredibly busy, running a small bar and about 10 tables by herself, she generally kept on top of everything.

The bar offers all you can eat wings during football Sundays, and although the buffalo style was OK, the barbecue wings were great. The sauce was exceptional, and we ordered more than several plates.

The beer was cold, the prices were good, and the experience might have been better if only it was easier to watch the actual games. It was better for the 4:00 games, as most of the bar cleared out after the early games finished, but generally, it was difficult to maneuver to watch more than one game.

On a scale of 1-10, the overall rating is a 3. It might have been higher if we were downstairs, and it would have been even higher if we weren't kicked out from downstairs. The saving grace was Katie and the barbecue sauce.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Picks of the Week



Welcome back to this year's "picks of the week" segment that will occur weekly at We Make It Rain. As a refresher, I like to keep track of what I would have earned had I actually bet on all of the games (since gambling is illegal). Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I will keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints - 4 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
See my entry from Thursday.

Carolina Panthers + 6 1/2 at New York Giants
The Giants struggled at the end of last season, going 3-8 in their last 11. I just don't see them as being that talented overall, especially on offense. And they are giving points!

Miami Dolphins -3 at Buffalo Bills
I suspect that the Bills will be much better than expected this season, but they still have a long season ahead of them.

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 v. Atlanta Falcons
This should be a close game, so I will take the points. Steelers defense, with Polamalu, keeps them in the game. I look for Dixon to make one really special, and one really costly, play.

Detroit Lions +7 at Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions defensive line looks to be much improved, with Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Stafford should be much improved as well. I don't know if the Lions will win outright, but they should cover. The Bears could be really, really bad this year.

Cincinnati Bengals + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
The story is going to be a rookie and a second year cornerback for the Patriots guarding TO and OchoCinco, with little or no pass rush. Take the Bengals outright.

Denver Broncos + 2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville could be in for a long, long season. Most of the people attending this game will be wearing Denver and or UF 15 jerseys anyway.

Houston Texans +1 v. Indianapolis Colts
It has to happen sometime, and it might as well occur when Indy's run game is struggling.

Tennessee Titans -6 v. Oakland Raiders
All Vince Young does is win. It isn't always pretty numerically, but he gets it done.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles
I could easily see the Packers in the Super Bowl this year.

San Francisco -3 at Seattle Seahawks
The winner of this game could actually clinch the division title - yes in week 1.

St. Louis Rams +4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Now wouldn't this be a surprise? However, some surprise always occurs in week 1. Arizona lost a ton of talent (Warner, Boldin, Dansby), and Fitzgerald is hurting. This team may have to reevaluate itself very quickly.

Dallas Cowboys - 3 1/2 at Washington Redskins
Dallas will almost certainly implode this season, I just don't expect it to be week 1. The Redskins may ultimately show improvement this year, but it is going to take a bit of time to get there.

Baltimore Ravens + 1 1/2 at New York Jets
Baltimore's offense is much better than the Jets. The Jets defense is not that much better than the Ravens.

San Diego Chargers - 4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are also going to be better as the season moves forward, just not in week 1.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns + 4 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay should not be giving points to anybody at this stage, I don't care if it is a home game or not.

Previous Week's Record: N/A
Year to Date: N/A
Winnings (Losses): N/A

Thursday, September 9, 2010

The Ole College Try

Once again, I will attempt to do a weekly wrap-up of the college football season, told from a couple of days distance simply to let some of the stories simmer a bit and to gain a bit of perspective. Generally this column will come out on Wednesday. Although you may have a different take on the past weekend, I can only truly comment on games that I have seen, and this is my perspective.

Also, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race this early in the season. After all, who knew who Mark Ingram was at this time last year. Regular readers will remember, or at least can go look up, my initial column last year where I accurately predicted the third straight sophomore Heisman winner (so what if it wasn't Jacory Harris?) Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

The only thing is we have no "Big 3 Edition" this season, since Bradford, McCoy and Tebow all defected to the riches of the NFL.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Kellen Moore - Boise State - Only 23-38 for 215 yards, but 3 TDs, including the last minute, prime time Labor Day evening game winner over Virginia Tech.

Tyler Yates - North Carolina - 412 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs against LSU. North Carolina's defense was undermanned this game (perhaps the season), so they needed every single one of Yates' yards to even compete.

Sleeper - Nick Foles - Arizona - 32-37 for 360 yards. Only 5 incompletions. Did have 1 interception, though.

Rising - Andrew Luck - Stanford - With his old backfield mate now on the Vikings (that's Toby Gerhart), this is Luck's team. Could be in contention for a PAC-10 title.

Falling - Nobody - yet.

And yes, I suspect this is the only time Yates and Foles merit mention in this column.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Demarco Murray - Oklahoma - 208 yards and 2 TDs. This team is now definitely back to being a running team, and Murray is the lead horse.

John Clay - Wisconsin - Only 123 yards, but on 17 carries. Will have a much heavier workload in tougher games.

Sleeper - Davin Meggett - Maryland - 105 yards, but on only 8 carries. I don't expect him to keep up this pace, but the Terps need something to work on offense for them to be good this year.

Rising - Nobody is rising after only one week.

Falling - Same.

Defensive Leader - Lance Mitchell S - Oregon State - 18 tackles! Not sure OSU wants its safety to have this many tackles, but he deserves to be on top for this week.

Co-Leader - Janoris Jenkins - CB - Florida - When the Gators so desperately needed a play, it was Jenkins, and not any of the members of the vaunted offense, that stepped up.

Player to Watch

Jacory Harris - QB - Miami - I am going with him for the second straight year after week 1. The fact that the Canes need him to play extremely well going into the Horseshoe is understating the facts.

My New Favorite Player

Kyle Padron - QB - Southern Methodist - Simply because of his name

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Mike Pouncey - C (former C) - Florida - He is not his brother Maurkice. Must have had 300 bad snaps during the game. Almost cost them the game against Miami (OH). One of the ESPN announcers stated that the Gators should bench Brantley and promote a shortstop.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Ken Niumatalolo - Navy - I understand going for it when your team is the underdog, tired, and becoming less and less competitve. When you have the better and stronger team? Go for the tie, prolong the game and outlast the weaker opponent. Even Niumatalolo admitted this mistake. You were rushing at will against Maryland, did you think that wasn't going to last in overtime?

Predicted BCS Championship Game Matchup
Boise State v. Alabama - Boise State has one big matchup left, against Oregon State. Alabama, until someone knocks them off is on top. Still way too early to tell.

Rant(s) of the Week
Florida State wide reciever/punt returner Greg Reid goes down with what looks to be a leg cramp, but could be more serious. The team gets him to the sidelines, and right in front of the cameras someone gives him a pill, puts something in his water bottle and has him drink. Now, I am sure it was a potassium pill or something similar, but for crying out loud, in this day and age of PEDs, at least have someone tell the audience what it was that he took.

Congratulations of the Week

Boise State - For the first time in their history, they looked like an actual great (potentially) team, rather than just a plucky good story with a good system.

Under Performance of the Week

Florida - Just awful. They got outplayed. Lucky to have won.

Offensive Play of the Week

Touchdown Catch by Boise State TE Tommy Gallarda. Magnificent diving catch in the endzone, holding onto the ball while hitting the ground with his elbow.

Co-Defensive Plays of the Week

Maryland Safety Kenny Tate stopping Navy QB Ricky Dobbs at the goal line with :34 left was important, but it paled in comparison to teammate Adrian Moten jumping over the line of scrimmage at the snap and simultaneously sacking Dobbs and causing a fumble. Roy Williams-like in athleticism.

Trivia Question of the Week

TCU QB Andy Dalton is tied with the most wins in school history. With who is he tied?

Matchup(s) to Watch

3. USF v. Florida - Could Florida really be that bad? South Florida QB B.J. Daniels is a handful - if you don't believe me, ask Florida State fans.

2. Florida State v. Oklahoma - Florida State's offense can compete with anyone, now we will see if the Seminoles defense can stop somebody good. Demarco Murray and Ryan Broyles give Landry Jones two phenomenal weapons to use.

1. Miami v. Ohio State - Need you ask?

For Future Reference

This is an abbreviated post, to be continued before Sunday, but for now my pick of the night ...

New Orleans Saints - 4 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Same Saints offense, worse Vikings offense. It'll be tough for Minnesota to overcome the loss of Rice and the headaches of Harvin.